Harper, by himself, projects at about +7 WAR, and with more certainty about his value, since it’s based on performance we can measure more easily. Upton and Heyward project to be worth about +8 WAR next year, though a good chunk of that is based on Heyward’s defensive value. Heyward got $23 million per year for eight years, while Upton got $22 million per year for six years, so their combined AAV is $45 million per season.
Bryce harper contract big free#
The two best young free agent hitters on the market this year were Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. When the market has decided that declining +3 WAR players are worth $20 million per year, it’s not too hard to illustrate why a +7 WAR player heading into his age-26 season would be worth well north of $40 million per year.īut just for fun, let’s use some current examples. I did this exercise with Mike Trout a few years ago, showing that a team would be better off with Trout and some random low-priced outfielder than the two best free agent outfielders on the market that winter Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. And, fairly or not, the Rodriguez contract is widely considered a mistake, as Texas ended up paying a significant portion of Rodriguez’s deal when they traded him to New York it is going to be difficult to sell an owner on a contract value by saying “this is the A-Rod deal for the current era.”īut you don’t need the A-Rod deal to make a case for spending $500 million on Bryce Harper you can simply look at what the same money would buy in free agency if you spread the wealth. Rodriguez was a shortstop, so it was easier to argue that his defensive value would hold up even with an eventual position switch, while Harper’s status as a corner outfielder means he’ll essentially have to be carried by his bat when injuries begin to take their toll on his fielding. Rodriguez reached free agency a year sooner, so he was selling his age-25 and beyond seasons, while Harper will be selling his age-26 and beyond years. Now, we shouldn’t just assume that Harper is going to get the A-Rod deal.
And that’s in 2015 dollars Bryce Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 season, and with three more years of inflation, prices should only be expected to rise. The average salary this past year was just over $4 million, so calculating for inflation, the AAV of A-Rod’s deal in present value is roughly $48 million per year, so it would have been the equivalent of him signing for 10/$480M this winter. At the time, the average salary for a Major League player was a little over $2 million, as total league payrolls in 2001 added up to $1.9 billion the AAV of Rodriguez’s deal was essentially 12 times the league average. And Rodriguez gives us a data point on what the market will pay for an inner-circle Hall of Fame talent hitting free agency in his mid-20s.Īfter the 2000 season, the Rangers gave Rodriguez a 10 year, $252 million contract. Through the same point of his career, Harper’s numbers are very similar to Alex Rodriguez he hits a bit better than A-Rod did at the same point, but he doesn’t play shortstop, so those differences mostly offset. The idea that $400 million is selling Harper might seem ridiculous, but he’s right as long as he continues to perform near expectations, the winning bid should be substantially higher than that. That’s what you’re doing right now to me, so don’t do that.” I just try to play the years out and do everything I can to help my team win,” Harper said. “Yeah, I mean I don’t really think about that stuff. Do you ever think about your future and what’s possible, in terms of you could break records for the money you make at one point in time?” “At one point in time they said you could be the first $400 million player. “I was talking to an executive this offseason,” Paulsen said. Harper was asked during an interview with 106.7 The Fan’s Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier whether he has thought about the possible magnitude of his next contract. Over the last few months, David Schoenfeld and Jeff Passan have discussed his eventual price tag recently, and Harper himself vaguely addressed the topic in a radio interview yesterday: Bryce Harper won’t be a free agent for three more years, but that hasn’t stopped people from writing about his next contract.
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